Texas Senate Election Winner
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?51¢
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?49¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Recent polling averages showing a statistical dead heat or narrow Talarico advantage, including an Emerson College survey placing Paxton at 47% and Talarico at 46% among likely voters, underpin the market's near-even pricing. Paxton's May 2026 primary defeat of incumbent John Cornyn with Trump's backing positioned him as the Republican nominee, yet ongoing legal scrutiny, ethical questions, and weaker support among some GOP voters have offset traditional state advantages. Talarico's substantial fundraising edge exceeding $68 million, strength with independents and moderates, and appeal to voters under 50 sustain competitiveness ahead of November. Upcoming debates and continued outside spending could widen margins in either direction before Election Day.