- Will Segolene Royal win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?4¢
- Will Olivier Faure win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?16¢
- Will Philippe Brun win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?5¢
- Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?72¢
- Will Karim Bouamrane win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?<1¢
- Will Francois Hollande win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?1¢
- Will Boris Vallaud win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?6¢
- Will Jérôme Guedj win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?<1¢
- Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?<1¢
- Will Carole Delga win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?1¢
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.
Raphaël Glucksmann’s 72% implied probability reflects his position as the clear frontrunner in the closed Socialist Party and Place Publique primary scheduled for October 9–17, 2026. He formally entered the race on August 23 via a prime-time TF1 interview, emphasizing ecological transformation, opposition to the far right, and refusal of future alliances with La France Insoumise, while securing PS party approval of the primary rules two days later. Other declared or potential entrants—Olivier Faure (16%), Boris Vallaud (6%), Ségolène Royal (3.7%), and lower-probability figures—trail due to Glucksmann’s stronger polling among the relevant electorate, media profile, and prior European election results. The primary’s closed format and September 15 candidacy deadline further concentrate trader consensus around his momentum heading into the vote.