This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 21 12:00 PM ET to August 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Elon Musk’s typical posting pace of roughly 20–30 tweets per day, drawn from recent weekly totals around 150–180 posts, anchors trader sentiment near the 140–199 range for August 21–28. That window lacks any announced major events such as Starship launches or earnings calls that historically trigger spikes above 50 daily posts, keeping the distribution tight across the mid-100s to low-200s buckets. Variability from breaking news cycles or platform engagement remains the key swing factor, but absent fresh catalysts the market-implied odds reflect a consensus on steady, unremarkable activity levels consistent with his baseline rhythm.