- Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by at least 25%?7¢
- Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by 20-25%?45¢
- Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by 15-20%?45¢
- Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by 10-15%?11¢
- Will another margin of victory outcome occur in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by less than 10%?2¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election. If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent polls from early September place the AfD at 40–43% and the CDU at 22–24% in the Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, producing an expected margin of roughly 17–21 percentage points. This positioning keeps trader probabilities nearly even between the 15–20% and 20–25% ranges. Late-campaign dynamics, including undecided voters, turnout differences across eastern districts, and minor parties hovering near the 5% threshold, add volatility to final vote shares. The CDU’s defensive messaging and AfD’s consolidation among its base have stabilized the lead without producing further widening in the most recent surveys. Resolution hinges on official results once all ballots are counted.