- Will CDU win less than 20% of all valid second votes?10¢
- Will CDU win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes?47¢
- Will CDU win between 23% and 26% of all valid second votes?32¢
- Will CDU win at least 26% of all valid second votes?15¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent polls conducted in late August 2026 place the CDU at 22–23 percent, down from 24 percent in July and well below its 37.1 percent result in the 2021 Landtag election, establishing a narrow band around the 20–23 percent and 23–26 percent brackets that dominate current trader pricing. The party’s decline under Minister-President Sven Schulze, who assumed the post in January 2026 after Reiner Haseloff stepped aside, coincides with stable AfD support near 41–42 percent and continued weakness among the CDU’s junior coalition partners. Late-campaign surveys and direct ministerial preference questions show limited movement, reinforcing trader focus on the CDU’s structural erosion in eastern Germany rather than any single late-breaking event. With the September 6 vote days away, remaining undecided voters and turnout among smaller parties represent the primary variables that could still shift the final share within or outside the leading intervals.