- Will Victor Mellor be the RI-02 Republican nominee?22¢
- Will Stephen Skoly be the RI-02 Republican nominee?79¢
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Stephen Skoly holds a strong lead in the Rhode Island Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional District, scheduled for September 9, reflecting his June endorsement by the state GOP at the party convention and established local profile as an East Greenwich oral surgeon. Victor Mellor, the sole remaining challenger and a self-funded businessman who recently returned to the state, trails amid questions over his background and limited party support. An August poll showed Skoly ahead among decided voters, though high undecided numbers persist. A televised debate taped September 4 and recent exchanges over Mellor’s military record represent the final major catalysts before early voting concludes and ballots are cast. Trader pricing aligns with these institutional and timing advantages for Skoly in a low-turnout primary environment.