- Will the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) win the most seats in the next Punjab Legislative Assembly election?46¢46%
- Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the next Punjab Legislative Assembly election?25¢25%
- Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the next Punjab Legislative Assembly election?14¢14%
- Will the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) win the most seats in the next Punjab Legislative Assembly election?3¢3%
The tight race in the 2027 Punjab Legislative Assembly election reflects competing claims on incumbency, with AAP under Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann facing its first major test while INC seeks to consolidate anti-incumbency support. Recent October 2026 opinion polls show AAP projected ahead in seats in some surveys yet indicate a potential hung assembly in others, amid declining AAP vote share from the 2022 results and gains for INC and BJP. Ongoing BJP-SAD alliance negotiations and the emergence of Waris Punjab De, linked to Amritpal Singh, could fragment Panthic votes and alter coalition math ahead of the February 2027 polls. Trader consensus on these probabilities accounts for these variables and the limited time remaining for further shifts in voter alignments or candidate announcements.
Rules
Legislative Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in Punjab, India, in February–March 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Punjab Legislative Assembly election. Independent candidates will not be considered for resolution. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Punjab Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).