- Will João Campos win the Pernambuco Governor election?35¢
- Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?67¢
- Will Ivan Moraes win the Pernambuco Governor election?<1¢
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking reelection, leads recent polling for the October 4 first-round vote at 44–47% against João Campos (PSB) at 36–40%, with Ivan Moraes (PSOL) near 1% and the remainder split among minor candidates or undecided. Her 68% government approval rating and edge in municipal-level alliances across 139 of 184 cities have supported this positioning, alongside a Datafolha and Quaest trend showing her pulling ahead after an earlier technical tie. The official campaign launch featured Lyra highlighting administrative continuity and indirect contrasts with prior PSB governance, while Campos centered Lula endorsements in television spots. Traders price Lyra as the frontrunner at 66.5% implied probability, with Campos at 34.5%, reflecting the first-round math and potential runoff dynamics on October 25.