- Will the Republican Party win the NY-25 House seat?3¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-25 House seat?95¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle secured his party's nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary with 63 percent of the vote in New York's 25th congressional district, a Rochester-area seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10. Nonpartisan ratings classify the general election matchup against Republican Virginia McIntyre as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent lean and Morelle's prior margins above 60 percent. Morelle's substantial fundraising lead and unified party support after the primary have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic outcome on November 3. A shift would require an unforeseen development such as a significant scandal, health event, or dramatic national swing that overcomes the structural baseline.