- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?20¢
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?25¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Nigel Farage remains Reform UK leader following his July 2026 resignation as Clacton MP amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared gifts and donations, which triggered a by-election he won decisively in August against novelty challengers. Recent polling shows Reform support and Farage’s personal ratings have softened after earlier peaks, prompting efforts at the September 2026 Birmingham party conference to project governing credibility through 100-day policy pledges and frontbench expansion. No formal challenges or succession moves have emerged, though internal discussions on discipline and broader right-wing competition persist. Key upcoming factors include post-conference announcements, potential early general election timing, and any resolution of outstanding standards investigations that could affect his parliamentary status or party positioning.