- Will Melissa Bailey be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?<1¢
- Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?75¢
- Will Hollie Noveletsky be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?20¢
- Will Brian Cole be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?<1¢
- Will Elizabeth Girard be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Anthony DiLorenzo holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the September 8 Republican primary in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, driven primarily by high-profile endorsements and a decisive fundraising edge. President Trump and House Republican leadership endorsed DiLorenzo in mid-July, followed by his inclusion in the NRCC’s MAGA Majority program. These signals consolidated support among party activists and donors. DiLorenzo, a self-funded businessman, reported over $1 million raised in the second quarter, the bulk from personal contributions, giving him far greater resources than rivals for advertising and ground operations in the final weeks. Hollie Noveletsky, a business owner and military veteran who previously sought the nomination, remains the clearest alternative at roughly one-fifth probability. She has emphasized manufacturing, trade, and stricter immigration positions while criticizing DiLorenzo’s past comments on related issues. However, her support has not kept pace with the endorsement wave. Melissa Bailey suspended her campaign in July and backed DiLorenzo, while state Rep. Brian Cole and other minor candidates trail far behind in both polling and market pricing. Recent polls show a tight race in some surveys, yet traders have priced in the structural advantages of endorsements and cash as the dominant factors heading into the September 8 vote.