- Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?82¢
- Will Carleigh Beriont be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?3¢
- Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?17¢
- Will Heath Howard be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Maura Sullivan holds a strong lead in the NH-01 Democratic primary market ahead of the September 8 vote, driven by consistent advantages in recent fundraising reports and polling averages. Sullivan has outraised Stefany Shaheen across multiple quarters, building a substantial cash reserve that supports broader advertising and outreach as an Iraq War veteran and former Obama administration official. Latest surveys from Tavern Research, the University of New Hampshire, and Saint Anselm College show Sullivan ahead or tied with Shaheen, whose early name-recognition edge from her family background has narrowed amid attacks on outside donations. Carleigh Beriont has consolidated some progressive support following Heath Howard’s withdrawal and endorsement, though she trails the top two. Trader consensus reflects these momentum shifts in a race with limited prior public polling.