- Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?48¢48%
- Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?16¢16%
- Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy?24¢24%
- Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy?<1¢<1%
- Will Matteo Salvini be the next Prime Minister of Italy?<1¢<1%
- Will Guido Crosetto be the next Prime Minister of Italy?<1¢<1%
- Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?<1¢<1%
- Will Silvia Salis be the next Prime Minister of Italy?4¢4%
- Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?5¢5%
- Will Matteo Renzi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?<1¢<1%
- Will Angelo Bonelli, be the next Prime Minister of Italy?<1¢<1%
- Will Carlo Calenda be the next Prime Minister of Italy?<1¢<1%
Giorgia Meloni maintains the leading position in trader assessments due to her center-right coalition’s record stability and recent passage of an electoral reform that awards a majority bonus to unified alliances above 42 percent. The government’s focus on an EU-compliant 2027 budget with targeted tax relief has reinforced perceptions of continuity ahead of the scheduled 2027 vote. On the center-left, Elly Schlein and Giuseppe Conte have seen their implied probabilities supported by the late-October agreement among Democratic Party, Five Star Movement, and allied groups to finalize a joint program by November, stage a national mobilization in December, and hold coalition primaries by February 2027. Farther down the field, Roberto Vannacci’s modest share reflects ongoing speculation about right-wing realignment, while lower probabilities for figures such as Mario Draghi and Matteo Salvini align with limited recent movement in polling or coalition dynamics.
Rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.