- Will Chris Minns be the next Premier of New South Wales?52¢52%
- Will Kellie Sloane be the next Premier of New South Wales?34¢34%
- Will Rose Jackson be the next Premier of New South Wales?14¢14%
- Will Mark Speakman be the next Premier of New South Wales?5¢5%
- Will Ryan Park be the next Premier of New South Wales?4¢4%
- Will Prue Car be the next Premier of New South Wales?4¢4%
- Will Gurmesh Singh be the next Premier of New South Wales?3¢3%
- Will Daniel Mookhey be the next Premier of New South Wales?1¢1%
- Will Mike Newman be the next Premier of New South Wales?<1¢<1%
- Will Alister Henskens be the next Premier of New South Wales?<1¢<1%
- Will Penny Sharpe be the next Premier of New South Wales?<1¢<1%
The March 2027 New South Wales state election drives tight probabilities in this market, with Labor Premier Chris Minns at 50.5% amid a surge by One Nation leader Mike Newman. Recent Resolve and DemosAU polling shows One Nation primary vote near 25%, prompting Minns to acknowledge on radio that his government could lose to the party and internal Labor briefings to warn of potential losses exceeding a dozen seats in the Hunter, Central Coast and regional areas. Liberal leader Kellie Sloane trails at 38.5% as the Coalition faces defections, while lower-priced names like Rose Jackson reflect limited alternatives within Labor. These factors sustain close trader consensus across contenders, with separation likely to emerge from further primary vote shifts or pre-election endorsements before nominations close in February 2027.
Rules
The 2027 New South Wales state election is currently scheduled to be held on 27 March 2027 to elect members of the 59th Parliament of New South Wales. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of New South Wales as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New South Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.