Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
- Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?32¢
- Will Steffen Krach be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?6¢
- Will Kristin Brinker be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?<1¢
- Will Werner Graf be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?18¢
- Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?45¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The September 20, 2026 Berlin state election for the Abgeordnetenhaus remains highly fragmented, with trader consensus reflecting no dominant frontrunner for Governing Mayor. Die Linke’s Elif Eralp holds the highest implied probability near 45 percent after recent polling gains, while CDU replacement Stefan Evers sits around 32 percent following Kai Wegner’s July withdrawal amid backlash over crisis handling. Greens candidate Werner Graf trails near 18 percent in a field that also includes SPD’s Steffen Krach and AfD’s Kristin Brinker. Multiple viable coalition paths after the vote, combined with the five-percent threshold and proportional representation, keep outcomes fluid until seat totals and negotiations clarify the parliamentary majority needed to elect the mayor.