- Will Éric Zemmour advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?3¢
- Will Laurent Wauquiez advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2¢
- Will Gabriel Attal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?8¢
- Will Fabien Roussel advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?4¢
- Will François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2¢
- Will Valérie Pécresse advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?<1¢
- Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?16¢
- Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?84¢
- Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?38¢
- Will François Ruffin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?2¢
- Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?4¢
- Will Marine Tondelier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?<1¢
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Marine Le Pen of the National Rally maintains a commanding lead in first-round polling for France’s April 2027 presidential election, driven by voter dissatisfaction with the Macron era and the party’s consolidated support on the right. Emmanuel Macron’s constitutional ineligibility has fragmented the centrist and moderate-right camps among figures such as Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal, while recent Harris Interactive surveys show Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise gaining ground and positioning for a potential runoff against Le Pen in multiple scenarios. Le Pen’s ongoing appeal of her embezzlement conviction remains a key variable that could alter National Rally’s candidate choice, including a possible shift to Jordan Bardella. The two-round system and vote fragmentation among non-RN contenders continue to shape the most probable advance pairings.