- Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?68¢68%
- Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany?14¢14%
- Will Markus Söder be the next Chancellor of Germany?8¢8%
- Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?4¢4%
- Will Boris Pistorius be the next Chancellor of Germany?4¢4%
- Will Lars Klingbeil be the next Chancellor of Germany?<1¢<1%
- Will Carsten Linnemann be the next Chancellor of Germany?<1¢<1%
- Will Felix Banaszak be the next Chancellor of Germany?<1¢<1%
- Will Jens Spahn be the next Chancellor of Germany?<1¢<1%
- Will Tino Chrupalla be the next Chancellor of Germany?<1¢<1%
- Will Katharina Dröge be the next Chancellor of Germany?<1¢<1%
- Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany?<1¢<1%
Trader consensus assigns a 65.5% probability to no change in the chancellorship before 2028, reflecting the current CDU/CSU-SPD coalition under Friedrich Merz formed after the February 2025 election and scheduled to run until early 2029. Recent YouGov polling shows only 23% of Germans expect the government to complete its full term, with widespread anticipation of a potential collapse in 2027 or 2028 amid weak coalition support and AfD gains in state contests. Leading named candidates such as Hendrik Wüst (13.5%) and Markus Söder (7.6%) draw from internal CDU/CSU discussions on succession, where Wüst often polls ahead on suitability, while Alice Weidel (4.3%) and Boris Pistorius (4.2%) register lower due to party and coalition barriers. These implied probabilities embed the coalition’s procedural resilience and absence of immediate triggers like a lost confidence vote.
Rules
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.