- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York be less than 4,500,000?5¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York be between 4,500,000 and 5,000,000?4¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York be between 5,000,000 and 5,500,000?4¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York be between 5,500,000 and 6,000,000?20¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York be between 6,000,000 and 6,500,000?39¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York be between 6,500,000 and 7,000,000?14¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York be 7,000,000 or more?21¢
Recent polling shows the Hochul-Blakeman contest tightening in places to single digits while remaining competitive statewide, with a notable enthusiasm gap favoring Republican supporters and regional divides between New York City and upstate areas. The October 13 debate and subsequent ad spending by both campaigns and aligned super PACs have kept voter attention elevated, though many registered voters appear decided. Early voting begins October 24 ahead of the November 3 election, and historical midterm patterns in New York point to turnout in the low-to-mid millions. These factors sustain trader focus on the 6M–7M range as the most probable outcome, with modest separation possible from last-minute mobilization efforts or shifts in independent participation.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.