New pandemic in 2026?
- New pandemic in 2026?6¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
No new pandemic has emerged in 2026 through mid-August, supporting the 94.5% market-implied probability of “No.” CDC and WHO surveillance data indicate only localized outbreaks—such as regional Ebola cases in Central Africa, a contained hantavirus cluster, rising measles, and low-level COVID-19 circulation—none of which meet criteria for sustained global human-to-human transmission or a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Post-COVID preparedness, including the 2025 WHO Pandemic Agreement and improved genomic monitoring, has helped contain zoonotic threats like H5N1 avian influenza. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include rapid mutation enabling efficient respiratory spread of an emerging coronavirus or influenza strain, or unexpected escalation from current Ebola or mpox clusters before year-end.