Nevada Governor Election Winner
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?36¢
- Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?64¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo holds a clear edge in the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial race, with traders assigning him a 64% probability of victory over Democratic nominee and current Attorney General Aaron Ford. Lombardo secured his party's nomination with 91% in the June 9 primary, while Ford won the Democratic primary with roughly 64%. Recent polling remains mixed, with Democratic surveys showing a statistical tie around 44% each and GOP-commissioned polls from early August indicating Lombardo leads of 7-12 points. As a swing-state contest set for November 3, the race features standard factors including incumbency, primary consolidation, and voter sentiment in key demographics, though the outcome remains subject to campaign developments over the final weeks.