- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?10¢10%
Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Supreme Leader in March 2026 following his father’s killing in a February US-Israeli strike, has issued only written statements and avoided all verified public appearances, citing security risks tied to ongoing regional tensions. Recent mourning ceremonies in November 2026 for Lady Fatima al-Zahra proceeded at the Zeinabiyeh complex without his attendance, consistent with his pattern since succession. Iranian officials have attributed the absence to protection concerns and recovery from injuries sustained in the attack, while meetings with officials occur privately. These factors sustain trader consensus around an 11% implied probability of a confirmed appearance by year-end, as recurring religious and state events have not produced photographic or video evidence despite opportunities for visibility.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.