Modi out by December 31, 2026?
- Modi out by December 31, 2026?9¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Narendra Modi continues to lead India's National Democratic Alliance coalition government following the 2024 elections, with no scheduled national polls or parliamentary votes capable of removing him before the end of 2026. Recent Gen Z-led protests over exam paper leaks prompted the July 2026 resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, marking a limited concession, yet the demonstrations ended without broader challenges to Modi's position or calls for his departure gaining traction. Official sources and reporting confirm his ongoing tenure as prime minister, with the coalition maintaining parliamentary support. Traders price the low likelihood of removal by year-end based on this institutional stability and absence of acute political triggers within the resolution window.