- Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?42¢42%
- Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?26¢26%
- Will Radomir Saičić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?21¢21%
- Will Dejan Bodiroga be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?6¢6%
- Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?<1¢<1%
- Will Vladan Đokić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?<1¢<1%
- Will Ivica Dačić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?<1¢<1%
- Will Ana Brnabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?<1¢<1%
- Will Stefan Krkobabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?<1¢<1%
- Will Zoran Stojiljković be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?<1¢<1%
- Will Miloš Vučević be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?<1¢<1%
- Will Đuro Macut be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?<1¢<1%
The recent parliamentary election victory by Serbia’s decentralized Student List movement, securing a projected majority of seats on October 25, has created substantial uncertainty over prime minister selection. The group, formed from anticorruption protests, lacks a designated leader and operates through collective plenums, resulting in numerous candidates sharing equal implied probabilities in trader consensus. This dispersion reflects the absence of a clear frontrunner and the need for internal negotiations before parliament convenes to form a government. Historical patterns of consensus appointments in protest-driven coalitions, combined with the incoming administration’s focus on institutional reforms, sustain the tight positioning until a candidate is formally advanced.
Rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.