- Will the Republican Party win the MO-05 House seat?9¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat?88¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver seeks reelection in Missouri’s 5th District against Republican nominee Rick Brattin in the November 3 general election. The race follows August primaries and a redistricting process that added rural Republican-leaning counties while altering Kansas City boundaries, prompting ongoing court challenges and a potential referendum on the map. Cleaver’s long tenure and established base in the Kansas City area continue to anchor trader assessments of his prospects. Brattin secured the GOP nomination with a late endorsement from President Trump amid a crowded field, yet the market’s heavy weighting toward the Democratic outcome reflects uncertainty over final district lines and the structural advantages of incumbency in a closely watched contest. Upcoming legal rulings on the map could still shift dynamics before Election Day.