- Will Democrats sweep the Michigan Senate and Governor elections?63¢
- Will Republicans sweep the Michigan Senate and Governor elections?11¢
- Will Democrats win the Michigan Governor election and Republicans win the Michigan Senate election?23¢
- Will Republicans win the Michigan Governor election and Democrats win the Michigan Senate election?3¢
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Michigan that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Democratic nominees hold narrow leads in both Michigan races heading into November, with recent EPIC-MRA and other surveys showing Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Mike Rogers in the open Senate contest and Jocelyn Benson ahead of John James in the open gubernatorial race. These polling margins, combined with the state’s recent Democratic performance in statewide contests, underpin trader consensus around a Democratic sweep as the highest-probability outcome. The August primaries produced clear nominees on the Republican side while highlighting internal Democratic divisions in the Senate race, yet general-election dynamics have favored the Democratic ticket thus far. Upcoming campaign events, including joint Republican appearances, and any shifts in undecided voters remain key variables that could alter implied probabilities before Election Day.