- Will AfD win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?<1¢
- Will AfD win 20-23 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?<1¢
- Will AfD win 24-27 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?9¢
- Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?54¢
- Will AfD win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?32¢
- Will AfD win 36 or more seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?<1¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shows the AfD maintaining a stable lead at approximately 35–36 percent ahead of the 20 September 2026 Landtag election, well ahead of the SPD at 28–29 percent, with the Left, CDU, and smaller parties trailing further. This positioning, more than double the AfD’s 2021 result, stems from sustained regional support in eastern Germany and limited coalition options for other parties, who continue to rule out cooperation. With the 5 percent threshold in play and several smaller parties near or below it, seat projections under proportional allocation with overhang and leveling seats cluster the AfD in the high 20s to mid-30s. The election’s proximity leaves little time for major shifts, though turnout and final threshold crossings could adjust the exact distribution within the current trader range.