- Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?32¢
- Will CDU win between 8% and 11% of all valid second votes?48¢
- Will CDU win between 11% and 14% of all valid second votes?14¢
- Will CDU win at least 14% of all valid second votes?9¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Recent polls place the CDU at roughly 9-10% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, aligning with trader consensus on the 8-11% band. The AfD leads at 35-36% while the SPD holds around 28-29% and Die Linke sits near 11-12%, drawing support from voters dissatisfied with the federal government and traditional parties. This compression reflects the CDU’s long-term decline in the east since its 13.3% result in 2021, with protest votes consolidating behind the AfD and limited room to expand its base. Surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap through mid-August have shown little movement, reinforcing the narrow range as the most probable outcome under current conditions.