- Will AfD win less than 32% of all valid second votes?<1¢
- Will AfD win between 32% and 35% of all valid second votes?26¢
- Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes?47¢
- Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes?22¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Recent polls place the AfD in the low-to-mid 30s percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the 20 September Landtag election, with the latest Infratest dimap survey (late August) showing 35 percent and Forsa at 37 percent. The SPD has narrowed the gap to three to nine points in the most recent fieldwork, reflecting gains for incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig and modest softening for the AfD. Other parties remain well behind, with Die Linke near 11 percent, the CDU around 8–10 percent, and the Greens at 5 percent, none of which alters the AfD’s position as the clear front-runner in raw vote intention. Traders appear to weigh the stability of AfD support in eastern states against the late narrowing and typical final-week volatility, producing the highest probability on a 35–38 percent outcome while assigning only modest odds to a surge above 38 percent or a drop below 35 percent.