- Will Galvan win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?<1¢
- Will Janaina Riva win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?70¢
- Will Jose Medeiros win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?6¢
- Will Margareth Buzetti win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?<1¢
- Will Pedro Taques win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?6¢
- Will Professor Nelson Ferreira win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?2¢
- Will Beny Godoy win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?<1¢
- Will Coronel Darwin win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?<1¢
- Will Fávaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?3¢
- Will Mauro Mendes win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?18¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Janaina Riva leads trader pricing for second place in Mato Grosso’s 2026 Senate race at 69.5 percent, reflecting consistent polling positioning her behind ex-governor Mauro Mendes. Recent surveys, including Paraná Pesquisas (24 August) showing Mendes at 52.3 percent and Riva at 33.7 percent in combined first-and-second preferences, and Quaest (25 August) with Mendes at 24 percent and Riva at 18 percent, reinforce this ordering. Riva performs strongly when voters select a second name, while Jose Medeiros, Pedro Taques, and Carlos Fávaro trail in the intermediate group and other listed candidates register minimal support. These patterns, stable across late-August fieldwork, underpin the current implied probabilities with limited movement in the preceding weeks.