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- Will Reinaldo Azambuja win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?78¢
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- Will Vander Loubet win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?2¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds the strongest position for first place in Mato Grosso do Sul’s October 4, 2026 Senate contest for two seats, backed by consistent polling leads of 21–31% across June–August surveys from institutes including Quaest, Ranking Brasil, and Ibrape. His profile as former governor, combined with the PL’s center-right alliance that pairs him with Capitão Contar (15–20%), has consolidated support and prompted Nelsinho Trad to withdraw and serve as his suplente. Other registered candidates, including Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT), trail in single digits amid fragmented opposition fields. These patterns explain trader consensus favoring Azambuja while assigning lower probabilities to remaining contenders.