- Mary Peltola charged by January 31?11¢11%
Recent reporting from late October 2026 triggered escalated federal and state scrutiny of Mary Peltola’s Senate campaign over allegations that operatives recruited an independent candidate named Dan J. Sullivan to appear on the ballot alongside incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, potentially confusing voters in Alaska’s ranked-choice election. The Department of Justice confirmed an ongoing criminal probe that intensified after grand jury subpoenas and record-preservation demands, while Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy directed the Department of Public Safety to examine possible state-law violations. Peltola and her campaign have denied involvement or knowledge. As of early November 2026, no charges have been filed despite months of prior federal attention, and the timeline to January 31 leaves limited room for completing discovery, review, and charging decisions in a politically sensitive election-related matter. Trader consensus at 91.5% against charges by that date reflects these procedural realities and the absence of imminent indictments.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Mary Peltola between market creation and January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.