- Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?<1¢
- Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?<1¢
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?95¢
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?5¢
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?2¢
- Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?<1¢
- Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?<1¢
- Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?<1¢
- Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?<1¢
- Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?<1¢
- Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?<1¢
- Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 28, 12:00 PM ET and September 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Trader consensus on this Polymarket heavily favors fewer than five posts from official Khamenei-linked X accounts during the August 28–September 4, 2026 window, at 95.2% implied probability. This reflects the established pattern of infrequent official X activity by Iran’s supreme leadership following the February 2026 succession. Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei, maintains a low public profile and communicates primarily through occasional written statements or official channels such as Telegram and state websites rather than frequent social media output. Recent weeks show posting rates consistent with this low baseline. Accounts tied to the leadership have focused on commemorative content tied to mid-August observances, without evidence of a sustained increase in volume. The most recent major statement from Mojtaba Khamenei, released August 30 on Islamic Unity Week and calling for Muslim cooperation against shared adversaries, appeared via Telegram and official sites—not X—further aligning with limited platform activity. No major diplomatic summits, military developments, domestic policy milestones, or crisis events are scheduled within the narrow resolution window that would typically prompt additional official statements. Separate media channels continue to handle routine updates. Scenarios that could realistically increase output include sudden escalation in regional tensions, high-profile diplomatic breakthroughs, or internal policy shifts requiring rapid public messaging, though historical patterns and the current low-profile approach make such spikes unlikely absent major triggers.