- Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?17¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Jerome Powell’s 14-year term as a Federal Reserve governor runs until January 31, 2028, anchoring trader views on whether political pressure from the Trump administration prompts an earlier exit. After stepping down as chair in May 2026, Powell explicitly committed to remaining on the board for an undetermined period to safeguard institutional independence following resolved DOJ scrutiny of headquarters renovations. Fixed statutory terms and the high bar for removal “for cause” limit near-term departure risk, though ongoing administration tensions and potential 2026-2027 Senate dynamics represent key swing factors. Market-implied odds reflect low near-term probability of voluntary resignation or forced removal before year-end, consistent with historical precedent of governors serving full terms.