- Will voter turnout be less than 66% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?8¢
- Will voter turnout be between 66% and 68% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?8¢
- Will voter turnout be between 68% and 70% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?11¢
- Will voter turnout be between 70% and 72% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?22¢
- Will voter turnout be between 72% and 74% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?38¢
- Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?18¢
Israeli voters head to the polls on October 27 for the first full-term Knesset election since 1988, with roughly 7.33 million eligible citizens and 38 party lists competing under the 3.25% threshold. The leading 72-74% turnout range reflects a combination of sustained mobilization by major blocs, including Likud and Yashar, alongside historically strong participation from Haredi communities and a sharp rise in overseas voting to 86.7%. Recent calls from party leaders for high engagement, the presence of first-time voters, and a closely contested race have supported levels near the 70.6% recorded in 2022, while structural factors such as varying Arab-sector participation and the absence of an acute national crisis have limited expectations for substantially higher figures.
Rules
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Israeli legislative election to the Knesset, defined as the total number of votes cast (סה"כ קולות שהוזנו) divided by the total number of eligible voters (סה"כ בעלי זכות בחירה). (see 2022 example: https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/) If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.