- Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?59¢
- Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?28¢
- Will Amcha Yisrael win 7-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?<1¢
- Will Amcha Yisrael win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?<1¢
Amcha Yisrael, a new right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by reserve Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, faces a high risk of falling below Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold in the upcoming Knesset election. Recent October polls from Channel 12 and others place it at 1.5–1.8%, well short of the roughly four seats needed, while averages across surveys hover around 2.7 seats. The party draws from the same hawkish, religious-Zionist voter pool as Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism-Zehut, amplifying vote-splitting concerns within the right bloc. Internal setbacks, including candidate resignations amid reported pressure and calls from figures like Netanyahu and Smotrich for withdrawal, have further eroded momentum. Trader consensus on fewer than four seats reflects these persistent polling shortfalls and structural barriers more than earlier optimistic surveys.
Rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).