- Is Earth flat?<1¢<1%
Trader consensus on the "No" outcome at 99.5% reflects the entrenched scientific framework and cultural dismissal of flat Earth ideas as fringe conspiracy theories in mainstream media and education. Overwhelming evidence from space agencies, global navigation systems, and astronomical observations has solidified the spherical model, with no credible recent developments challenging this consensus. Historical patterns show such claims persist in niche online communities but fail to gain traction in broader public discourse or industry narratives. Realistic upset scenarios would require extraordinary, unverified revelations contradicting established geophysical data, though entertainment portrayals often highlight the persistence of fringe beliefs for dramatic effect.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive proof that the earth is flat becomes public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.