- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?94¢94%
- Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?2¢2%
- Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?2¢2%
- Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?1¢1%
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- 93.6%Mojtaba Khamenei$7.2m Vol.
- 2.3%Alireza Arafi$2.3m Vol.
- 1.9%No Head of State$1.2m Vol.
- 1.2%Reza Pahlavi$734.5k Vol.
- 0.3%Masoud Pezeshkian$1.1m Vol.
- 0.3%Hassan Rouhani$974.2k Vol.
- 0.2%Muhammad Mirbaqiri$486.1k Vol.
- 0.2%Sadegh Larijani$596.1k Vol.
- 0.2%Hassan Khomeini$1.5m Vol.
- 0.2%Maryam Rajavi$916.9k Vol.
- 0.2%Abbas Araghchi$859.1k Vol.
- 0.2%Ahmad Vahidi$795.1k Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei's selection by Iran's Assembly of Experts in March 2026, shortly after his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in US-Israeli strikes, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring his continued role as Supreme Leader through the end of 2026. The rapid appointment amid wartime conditions consolidated support from the Revolutionary Guards and senior clerical and security institutions, prioritizing regime continuity over traditional opposition to hereditary succession. Recent months have seen Mojtaba exercise authority through written directives and reported consultations with parliamentary, judicial, and military leaders, including October meetings on defense posture, while maintaining a low public profile due to security concerns and reported injuries. Other listed figures remain marginal because they lack comparable institutional backing or alignment with the dominant hardline networks. Potential disruptions could arise from severe escalation in regional conflicts, significant internal elite fractures, or verifiable health developments that alter the current power structure before year-end.
Rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.