- Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?16¢16%
- Iran full airspace closure by December 31?30¢30%
- 5%15.5%November 30$393.5k Vol.
- 11%29.5%December 31$1.1m Vol.
Recent US military operations against Iranian targets, including limited strikes on air defenses around Qeshm Island in early November 2026, have driven renewed regional airspace restrictions. Iran and neighboring states such as Iraq and Kuwait announced full or near-full closures on November 12 amid these actions, reflecting heightened military alert levels and efforts to mitigate risks from missile activity or air-defense operations. EASA maintains its advisory against operations in the Tehran FIR through at least November 16, while the FAA prohibition extends into 2027; carriers continue to avoid the airspace despite formal Iranian reopenings earlier in the year. Trader sentiment centers on whether sustained escalation or further strikes will produce a complete, sustained closure before key review dates, balanced against de-escalation signals or phased reopenings for domestic and limited transit flights.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.