- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be less than 1,200,000?5¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,200,000 and 1,250,000?12¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,250,000 and 1,300,000?4¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,300,000 and 1,350,000?9¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,350,000 and 1,400,000?13¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,400,000 and 1,450,000?22¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,450,000 and 1,500,000?27¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,500,000 and 1,550,000?19¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,550,000 and 1,600,000?<1¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be 1,600,000 or more?4¢
The open-seat Iowa Senate contest between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek remains a toss-up in polling averages, with margins inside four points and no clear frontrunner, which keeps total turnout expectations tightly distributed across the 1.2M–1.5M range. Historical midterm baselines from 1.04M to 1.21M provide a floor, while the absence of an incumbent and dual-candidate enthusiasm create upside potential above prior cycles. Recent early and absentee ballot data, combined with voter focus on the economy, introduce further variability depending on mobilization in suburban and rural areas. Late shifts in polling margins, final-week campaign intensity, or national conditions could push totals toward the lower or higher buckets before November 3.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.