- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be less than 3,250,000?4¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 3,250,000 and 3,500,000?3¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000?3¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 3,750,000 and 4,000,000?7¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 4,000,000 and 4,250,000?21¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 4,250,000 and 4,500,000?19¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 4,500,000 and 4,750,000?27¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be 4,750,000 or more?5¢
Trader consensus centers on 4.25M–4.5M total votes as the most probable range for the November 3, 2026 Illinois U.S. Senate election. This reflects typical midterm turnout in a state with roughly 8 million registered voters, where recent cycles produced 45–52% participation rates. Early voting, expanded since late September, and the October 18 online registration deadline support steady accumulation, while Democratic primary participation surged nearly 50% year-over-year, signaling organized get-out-the-vote efforts. Offsetting factors include Illinois’s ongoing population decline and outmigration, plus the low-competition open-seat contest between Democrat Juliana Stratton and Republican Don Tracy, which historically dampens mobilization compared with tighter races. National midterm dynamics and parallel state legislative contests add modest upward pressure without shifting the core expectation away from the 4–4.5 million band.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.