IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
- IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?25¢
- IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?<1¢
- IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?10¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
IAEA access to Iran’s key nuclear facilities remains restricted following 2025 Israeli and U.S. strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Iran has provided only selective or partial inspections at unaffected sites since the conflicts, while blocking verification at the damaged enrichment and conversion plants. IAEA reports through mid-2026 note lost continuity of knowledge on enriched uranium stockpiles, including 20% and 60% material observed via satellite at Isfahan tunnels, and repeated calls for “indispensable and urgent” access to resolve safeguards issues. Recent diplomatic signals, including references to interim understandings or negotiations, have not yet produced confirmed visits to the three targeted sites. Trader assessments hinge on whether ongoing talks or pressure produce Iranian approval for IAEA inspectors before the market’s resolution window, amid persistent Iranian statements prioritizing sovereignty over full cooperation.