- Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?10¢10%
- Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?18¢18%
- Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?41¢41%
- Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?18¢18%
- Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?2¢2%
- Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?6¢6%
The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and surge in Iranian attacks on commercial vessels have severely restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic, driving visible AIS transits to roughly 6 per day—about 7% of the pre-crisis baseline near 85—while elevating Brent crude above $116 and war-risk premiums to multiples of normal levels. Recent October data show 27 confirmed incidents, the highest monthly total since fighting began in February, with many operators shifting to dark transits under U.S. naval coordination or rerouting where feasible. Trader sentiment reflected in the dispersed odds around 25-29 transits for the week of October 26 captures uncertainty over the volume of non-AIS movements, potential short-term diplomatic pauses ahead of U.S. midterms, and whether attacks will sustain the current floor or intensify further.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 26, 2026, through November 1, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.