- Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?8¢
- Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?33¢
- Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?28¢
- Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?23¢
- Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?9¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Trader sentiment for weekly Bab el-Mandeb transits centers on persistent Houthi-related security risks and selective rerouting that have kept volumes well below historical 60-80 vessels per day norms. Recent Kpler and Lloyd’s List data show weekly traceable crossings fluctuating between roughly 200 and 300 in late August 2026, supported by limited Chinese-linked tanker movements but pressured by war-risk premiums, AIS-dark activity, and carrier pauses on Suez routings amid broader Middle East tensions. The tight spread between the 170-189 and 190-209 bins reflects uncertainty over whether incremental recovery from the 2025 Gaza ceasefire will hold or if fresh incidents will push counts toward the lower end of recent ranges. Key swing factors include upcoming insurance renewals, any Houthi enforcement actions, and shifts in tanker loadings from Yanbu versus longer Cape diversions, with market-implied odds embedding these near-term volatility risks rather than a return to pre-disruption levels.