- Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?97¢
- Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be 44 or more?<1¢
- Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 40 and 43 inclusive?2¢
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026 have reached 37 as of early September, placing the total firmly in the 36–39 range that commands 96.5% market pricing. Ballotpedia’s tracker shows these departures include 17 retirements from public office and 20 others running for Senate, governor, or state attorney general, exceeding recent cycles and matching or approaching the 2018 record for GOP exits. Drivers include institutional frustration amid slim majorities and legislative gridlock, redistricting shifts in several states, opportunities for statewide office, and a pattern of shorter-tenured members stepping aside to make room for newer candidates. Additional primary defeats or late announcements remain possible before November, but the current pace and timing of decisions have produced strong trader consensus around this band with limited room for meaningful movement.