- Will Republican House incumbents not win in three or fewer nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?<1¢
- Will Republican House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?8¢
- Will Republican House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?6¢
- Will Republican House incumbents not win in more than fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?3¢
- Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?87¢
- Will Republican House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?6¢
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Republican House primary outcomes in the 2026 cycle reflect a modest number of incumbent defeats driven by targeted challenges, redistricting effects in states like Texas, and internal party dynamics including endorsements from President Trump. Confirmed losses include Reps. Dan Crenshaw in Texas, Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Cory Mills in Florida, placing the total near the lower end of recent cycles. Additional factors such as primary timing across states, limited broad anti-incumbent waves, and the resolution window through remaining contests support trader consensus around 4-6 defeats rather than higher or lower ranges. Historical base rates for Republican House primary losses and the absence of widespread upheaval further align with current implied probabilities.