- Will Trump deport less than 200k people?2¢2%
- Will Trump deport 200-300k people?4¢4%
- Will Trump deport 300-400k people?8¢8%
- Will Trump deport 400-500k people?44¢44%
- Will Trump deport 500-600k people?4¢4%
- Will Trump deport 600-700k people?2¢2%
- Will Trump deport 700-800k people?1¢1%
- Will Trump deport 800-900k people?1¢1%
- Will Trump deport 900k-1m people?3¢3%
- Will Trump deport more than 1m people?3¢3%
Recent Migration Policy Institute analysis shows U.S. authorities completed roughly 980,000 deportations and returns from January 2025 through July 2026, placing the annualized pace for fiscal year 2026 at approximately 660,000—above prior years yet below the administration’s one-million target. Traders appear to weigh this shortfall alongside low border encounters, rising but still limited interior enforcement, expanded voluntary departures, and ongoing legal and logistical constraints when pricing the 400-500k range as the leading outcome for calendar 2026. White House statements citing higher cumulative removals have not shifted the market, as participants focus on verifiable removal counts versus broader enforcement actions. Interior arrests have increased in recent months, yet overall volumes remain tempered by court backlogs and resource allocation. No major policy shifts have occurred in the past week to alter this positioning.
Rules
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.