How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
- Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?67¢
- Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?<1¢
- Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?<1¢
- Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?26¢
- Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026?<1¢
- Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?<1¢
- Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?3¢
- Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026?<1¢
- Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026?<1¢
- Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?1¢
- Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?<1¢
- Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including operations near Nabatieh on August 14-15, 2026, alongside continued limited actions in Gaza amid stalled disarmament talks, anchor trader expectations for a modest total. These build on the February-June 2026 U.S.-Israel campaign that struck Iran and its proxies, establishing multiple distinct theaters without recent broad expansion into states such as Syria or Yemen. With over half the year elapsed and no major new diplomatic breakdowns or proxy escalations evident in the past month, market pricing reflects consensus that the count will likely remain at four or five absent significant late-year shifts in regional tensions or ceasefire dynamics.