- Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?9¢
- Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?5¢
- Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?6¢
- Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?5¢
- Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?4¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Recent August 2026 employment data showed the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1 percent alongside a stronger-than-expected 162,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls, reflecting a labor market where slower labor-force growth from reduced net immigration has offset softer hiring demand. This dynamic has kept the rate near its 2025 average of 4.3 percent despite moderating job gains and elevated inflation pressures that keep a September FOMC rate decision in focus. Traders monitoring the 2026 peak will watch October’s jobs release and subsequent data for signs of further cooling, with the break-even pace of monthly payroll growth now estimated near 30,000–50,000 amid demographic and policy-driven supply constraints.