Fed Decision in October?
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?24¢
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?1¢
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?71¢
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?5¢
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?1¢
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Recent moderation in U.S. inflation data, including the July 2026 CPI rising just 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, has reinforced trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% during its October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Persistent above-target readings and earlier energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions support the 23.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point hike, while the low odds on cuts reflect limited downside risks in current labor market conditions and forward-looking projections. Market-implied odds align with CME FedWatch pricing and economist forecasts anticipating the first potential tightening later in 2026, with incoming data on employment, PCE inflation, and September FOMC communications as key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path.