Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?53¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent July CPI data cooling to 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, has eased near-term hike pressures after the Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in July amid a 9-3 split. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, resilient labor market conditions, and geopolitical energy price risks from Middle East tensions sustain hawkish dissent and balanced trader sentiment for any 2026 increase. Market-implied odds near 50% reflect this tension between softening price trends and divided FOMC guidance versus official projections. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and August inflation plus employment releases, which could shift rate expectations and resolve the deadlock.